Slim Down for Summer with That's Fit

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Eric Buscemi
New York - http://www.theflyonthewall.com

Eric Buscemi, who has worked for the financial news site Theflyonthewall.com for three years, is the head editor of the company's blog. He has a BA and an MA in English from Queens College.

Analyst initiations: MVL, MVSN, KSP, SB, LTM, CLUB

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Marvel Entertainment, Macrovision and K-Sea Trans were today's noteworthy initiations:
  • Thomas Weisel initiated Marvel Entertainment (NYSE: MVL) with a Market Weight rating and $34 target citing valuation and lack of meaningful operational catalysts until 2010.
  • Kaufman Bros. assumed Macrovision (NASDAQ: MVSN) with a Buy rating and $27 target. The firm believes the merger with Gemstar TV Guide creates a powerhouse in digital media technology licensing with a compelling financial model.
  • Wachovia expects K-Sea Trans (NYSE: KSP) to benefit from stable petroleum product demand, longer-term contracts, and aggressive new building program. Shares were started with an Outperform rating.
OTHER INITIATIONS:
  • Safe Bulkers (NYSE: SB) was initiated with a Neutral rating at Merrill Lynch and an Outperform rating and $25 target at Credit Suisse.
  • Stephens initiated Life Time Fitness (NYSE: LTM) with an Overweight rating and $37 target and Town Sports (NASDAQ: CLUB) with an Equal Weight rating and $10 target.

Analyst downgrades: TRX, WSH, SNV, TWB, GYMB, AACC, OEH

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Tronox, Willis Group and Synovus FInancial were today's noteworthy downgrades:
  • Lehman downgraded Tronox (NYSE: TRX) to Underweight from Equal Weight citing increased costs in freight, process, and energy costs, and end market weakness.
  • Citigroup downgraded shares of Willis Group (NYSE: WSH) to Hold from Buy as they believe the acquisition of Hilb, Rogal and Hobbs (NYSE: HRH) will limit margins and stock upside through 2009. Citigroup lowered their target price to $36 from $40.
  • Morgan Keegan downgraded Synovus Financial (NYSE: SNV) to Market Perform from Outperfrom citing concerns related to potential losses to the construction and development portfolio and a likely dividend cut.
OTHER DOWNGRADES:
  • Tween Brands (NASDAQ: TWB) and Gymboree (NASDAQ: GYMB) were downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Friedman Billings.
  • Jefferies cut Asset Acceptance (NASDAQ: AACC) to Underperform from Hold.
  • Merill downgraded Orient-Express (NYSE: OEH) to Underperform from Neutral.

Analyst upgrades: NCR, MDVN, TEVA, MMC, RATE, ALU

MOST NOTEWORTHY: NCR Corp, Medivation and Teva Pharma were today's noteworthy upgrades:
  • Baird upgraded NCR Corp (NYSE: NCR) to Outperform from Neutral following its North American ATM managers survey that indicates a solid ATM environment and opportunity for margin improvement.
  • Rodman & Renshaw upgraded Medivation (NASDAQ: MDVN) to Outperform from Market Perform citing valuation of the firm's pipeline given recent catalyst of positive Phase II results in Huntington's disease with lead candidate, Dimebon.
  • Goldman added Teva Pharma (NASDAQ: TEVA) to its Conviction Buy List citing valuation, upcoming catalysts, and defensive characteristics.
OTHER UPGRADES:
  • Marsh & McLennan (NYSE: MMC) was raised to Buy from Hold at Citigroup.
  • RBC lifted Bankrate (NASDAQ: RATE) to Outperform from Sector Perform.
  • Alcatel-Lucent (NYSE: ALU) was upgraded at WestLB to Hold from Sell.

Market highlights for next week: Alcoa to report earnings

Monday, July 7
  • San Francisco Fed Reserve Bank President Yellen to speak about the U.S. economic outlook at the University of California/San Diego with a Q&A session.
  • Aracruz Cellulose (NYSE: ARA) to report Q2 earnings; conference call at 11:00am.
Tuesday, July 8
  • Richmond Fed Reserve Bank President Lacker to speak about U.S. economic outlook to the National Economists Club in Washington with a Q&A session expected.
  • Gulfmark Offshore, Inc. (NYSE: GLF) to discuss the acquisition of Ridgon Marine at 9:00am.
  • Alcoa Inc. (NYSE: AA) to report Q2 earnings; conference call at 5:00pm.
  • Hansen Natural Corporation (NASDAQ: HANS) to give Business News update at 5:00pm.

Continue reading Market highlights for next week: Alcoa to report earnings

Analyst downgrades: NVDA, AFLYY and UNH

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Nvidia, Air France and UnitedHealth were today's noteworthy downgrades:
  • JP Morgan downgraded Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) to Neutral from Overweight following the company's lowered guidance.
  • Deutsche Bank cut Air France (Other OTC:AFLYY) to Sell from Hold as they believe consensus revenue estimates need to come down.
  • Following UnitedHealth's (NYSE:UNH) lowered guidance, UBS said there is "little hope" for improvement in 2009 and that the company has above average exposure to the Medicare segment, which is being politically pressured. UBS downgraded shares to Neutral from Buy.
OTHER DOWNGRADES:
  • Aetna (NYSE:AET) and Health Net (NYSE:HNT) were downgraded to Sell from Neutral at Goldman.
  • Dice Holdings (NYSE:DHX) was lowered at Wachovia to Market Perform from Outperform.
  • Zhone (NASDAQ:ZHNE) was downgraded to Source of Funds from Buy at ThinkPanmure.

Analyst upgrades: Tower sector stocks, TSCDY and AA

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Tower sector stocks, Tesco Plc and Alcoa were today's noteworthy upgrades:
  • RBC Capital upgraded American Tower (NYSE:AMT), Crown Castle( NYSE::CCI), SBA Comm (NASDAQ:SBAC) to Outperform from Sector Perform citing recent weakness in the tower sector group and a continued favorable outlook.
  • Merrill upgraded shares of Tesco (Other OTC:TSCDY) to Buy from Neutral as they believe it is the only proven growth stock in the sector.
  • Soleil upgraded shares of Alcoa (NYSE:AA) to Hold from Sell on valuation following the recent weakness.
OTHER UPGRADES:

Analyst initiations: DDUP, ESE and NTAP

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Data Domain, ESCO Technologies and NetApp were today's noteworthy initiations:
  • ThinkPanmure said Data Domain's (NASDAQ:DDUP) installed base, strong product, technology lead, and partner network provides a sustainable competitive advantage in the high-growth market for capacity-optimized data storage powered by de-duplication software. Shares were initiated with a Buy rating and $30 target.
  • Friedman Billings expects ESCO Tech's (NYSE:ESE) utility solutions segment to drive sales growth as secular demand for advanced metering gains traction. The firm started shares with an Outperform rating and $60 target.
  • Merriman initiated NetApp (NASDAQ:NTAP) with a Neutral rating. The firm is cautious on the name as the company seeks to reaccelerate top-line growth in a challenging economic environment in North America.
OTHER INITIATIONS:

Analyst upgrades: ExxonMobil, Susquehanna, BJ's Wholesale

MOST NOTEWORTHY: ExxonMobil, Susquehanna and BJ's Wholesale were today's noteworthy upgrades:

  • Bernstein upgraded shares of ExxonMobil (NYSE: XOM) to Outperform from Market Perform to reflect the company's best of industry returns and high credit rating, which they feel makes for a safe investment in the current environment.
  • Keefe Bruyette upgraded shares of Susquehanna (NASDAQ: SUSQ) to Market Perform from Underperform on valuation and believes the company is unlikely to have to raise capital.
  • JP Morgan raised BJ's Wholesale (NYSE: BJ) to Overweight from Neutral citing improvement in the company's ability to convert free trial customers to paid members and strong June sales, which could result in EPS upside for Q2-Q4.

OTHER UPGRADES:

Analyst downgrades: Concur Tech, Groupe Danone, General Motors

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Concur Tech, Groupe Danone and General Motors were today's noteworthy downgrades:

  • Piper downgraded shares of Concur Tech (NASDAQ: CNQR) to Neutral from Buy after transferring analyst coverage, as they believe potential upside to estimates is priced into shares while competitive concerns from American Express (NYSE: AXP) are not.
  • Morgan Stanley downgraded shares of Groupe Danone (OTC: GDNNY) to Equal Weight from Overweight to reflect reduced visibility in the company's core business.
  • Merrill downgraded General Motors (NYSE: GM) to Underperform from Buy citing the company's deteriorating US auto sales, resulting in a higher cash burn, which could result in a larger than expected capital raise. The firm believes GM capital raise could be in the range of $15 billion and notes that bankruptcy is "not impossible."

OTHER DOWNGRADES:

Analyst initiations: Telefonica, Affymax, Hatteras Financial

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Telefonica, Affymax and Hatteras Financial were today's noteworthy initiations:

  • Deutsche Bank initiated Telefonica (NYSE: TEF) with a Buy rating and believes concerns of an economic slowdown in Spain are overdone and that company is on track to make 2008 guidance.
  • Baird assumed coverage of Affymax (NADAQ: AFFY) with an Outperform rating and $25 target. The firm believes the market has discounted the regulatory and commercial prospects of lead compound Hematide, which they believe is a $800M revenue opportunity, and recommends buying shares aggressively in the mid-$20s.
  • Shares of Hatteras Financial (NYSE: HTS) were started with an Outperform rating and $35 target at Friedman Billings. The firm believes management has the opportunity to stabilize its agency portfolio and generate a return on invested capital of about 20%.

OTHER INITIATIONS:

  • Caris assumed OmniVision (NASDAQ: OVTI) with a Buy rating and $15 target.
  • Pioneer Natural (NYSE: PXD) was initiated at UBS with a Buy rating and $110 target.
  • UBS also initiated CME Group (NYSE: CME) with a Neutral rating and $430 target.
  • Allied Capital (NYSE: ALD) was assumed with a Buy rating and $14.40 target at Merrill Lynch.

Analyst initiations: LEH, NOK and ISRG

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Lehman Brothers, Nokia and Intuitive Surgical were today's noteworthy initiations:
  • Morgan Stanley initiated Lehman Brothers (NYSE:LEH) with an Overweight rating and $31 target. The firm believes Lehman's discount to book value prices in significant write-downs.
  • Bernstein believes Nokia (NYSE:NOK) will see a slowdown in demand for devices and could loss market share. Shares were initiated with an Underperform rating.
  • Merriman assumed Intuitive Surgical (NASDAQ:ISRG) with a Neutral rating and believes the tightened credit markets could impact capital equipment spending for small and mid-sized hospitals. They find shares appropriately valued at current levels.
OTHER INITIATIONS:
  • Terre Kaufman initiated Terremark Worldwide (NASDAQ:TMRK) with a Buy rating and $8 target.
  • T-3 Energy (NASDAQ:TTES) was initiated at Jefferies with a Buy rating and $95 target.
  • Adobe (NASDAQ:ADBE) was assumed with an Outperform rating and $48 target at Friedman Billings.

Analyst downgrades: MNI, ANSS and FO

MOST NOTEWORTHY: McClatchy News, Ansys and Fortune Brands were today's noteworthy downgrades:
  • Deutsche Bank downgraded shares of McClatchy (NYSE:MNI) to Sell from Hold after transferring analyst coverage as they believe leverage issues will continue to pressure the stock.
  • Jefferies downgraded shares of Ansys (NASDAQ:ANSS) to Hold from Buy on valuation and their belief that a slow U.S. manufacturing economy may be impacting sales cycles at the margin.
  • Fortune Brands (NYSE:FO) was lowered to Market Perform from OUtperform at Wachovia following its lowered 2008 outlook.
OTHER DOWNGRADES:

Analyst upgrades: LRCX, DT and FTE

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Lam Research, Deutsche Telekom and France Telecom were today's noteworthy upgrades:
  • Credit Suisse upgraded Lam Research (NASDAQ:LRCX) to Outperform from Neutral citing margin expansion and valuation. Lam was named the firm's top pick in SCE names for 2H08.
  • JP Morgan upgraded shares of Deutsche Telekom (NYSE:DT) to Overweight from Neutral as they expect a stronger second half of the year for the industry.
  • France Telecom (NYSE:FTE) was upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Merrill and to Buy from Hold at Societe Generale after the company walked away without bidding for Sweden's TeliaSonera.
OTHER UPGRADES:

Analyst upgrades: SYMC, CFNL and BP

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Symantec, Cardinal Financial and BP Plc were today's noteworthy upgrades:
  • ThinkPanmure upgraded Symantec (NASDAQ:SYMC) to Buy from Accumulate based on improved execution, stable growth in core business, and ramping competitive position in some high-growth businesses.
  • Baird upgraded Cardinal Financial (NASDAQ:CFNL) to Outperform from Neutral based on valuation, the company's favorable credit risk profile in Northern Virginia, and its excess capital position.
  • Societe Generale raised BP Plc (NYSE: BP) to Hold from Sell as it believes the bad news is priced into shares and earnings could be better than expected.
OTHER UPGRADES:

Analyst downgrades: TXI, TGA and LVLT

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Texas Industries, TransGlobe Energy and Level 3 Communications were today's noteworthy downgrades:
  • Stephens downgraded shares of Texas Industries (NYSE: TXI) to Equal Weight from Overweight as it believes higher energy costs will affect the company's ability to achieve its guidance. The firm lowered its target to $68 from $83.
  • Jefferies assumed coverage and downgraded shares of TransGlobe Energy (NYSE:TGA) to Hold from Buy as it sees limited upside until the company completes its seismic activity and can better quantify its exploratory reserve potential. The firm lowered its target to $5.25 from $6.50.
  • Citigroup downgraded Level 3 (NASDAQ: LVLT) to Sell from Hold as it believes the pullback in telecom valuations increases downside risk for the stock. Citigroup lowered their target price to $2.50 from $3.
OTHER DOWNGRADES:

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Symbol Lookup
IndexesChangePrice
DJIA+152.2511,384.21
NASDAQ+51.122,294.44
S&P 500+21.391,273.70

Last updated: July 08, 2008: 09:15 PM

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