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Lady Luck deserts gambling stocks

There is something rotten in Denmark, to quote from Hamlet, Act I, as well as in Las Vegas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Colorado, Iowa, and Florida. Gambling havens, once thought recession proof, are in trouble. Customer numbers are down, as are gambling, gift shop, hotel, and restaurant revenues. Casinos in Las Vegas have been hard hit, according to a recent article in the Wall Street Journal, because of billions of dollars of debt to finance overambitious expansion plans. Tropicana Entertainment filed for Chapter 11 in May, defaulting on $2.67 billion in bank and bond debt. But smaller casinos are also feeling the pain.

Isle of Capri Casinos Inc. (NASDAQ: ISLE) recently reported 4Q and FY2008 results. Snake eyes. Investors know they are not in for good news when the CEO spends the first few paragraphs of an earnings release discussing what a "transformational period" the last year has been. That's corporate-speak for "money losing," beginning with a $78.7 million write down in the value of some of the company's international assets and ending with a $51.3 million loss from continuing operations in 4Q 2008. All told, Isle of Capri Casinos lost $96.9 million from continuing operations in FY2008.The company cited increased competition in riverboat gambling in Biloxi, a smoking ban in casinos in Colorado, and a flood in Natchez as reasons for the lackluster performance. The company admits it needs to renovate 1,200 of its hotel rooms in order to attract customers back to the slots and tables.

The stock is currently trading at $4.23, near its 52-week low of $3.97.

Corel earnings drop 60%

Anybody who does much in the way of graphics or design knows Corel Corp. (NASDAQ: CREL) and its products -- Corel DRAW and Corel Paint Shop. No question they are good products. But that does not mask the fact that 2Q 2008 numbers do paint paint a pretty picture. Interim CEO Kris Hagerman states that "Corel performed well in the second quarter." Given that revenues were up less than 3% and GAAP net income, another word for earnings, dropped 60% to $930,000, what would qualify in Hagerman's book as a bad quarter? It isn't necessarily how much a company makes that is most important, it is how much of that amount it gets to keep.

EBITDA is heading south and Hagerman admits the company needs to pursue "opportunities in faster growing markets." The company issued 3Q 2008 guidance of GAAP earnings per share of zero to $0.06, in line with 2Q results. Time for senior management to paint a prettier picture.

Shares closed Thursday at $10.75. The stock is up about 4% year to date.

See also: What's going on with the Corel buyout?

WD-40 (WDFC) greases its own wheels

The lubricant with thousands of uses, WD-40 is found in just about every toolbox in the nation. WD-40 Company (NASDAQ: WDFC) released 3Q 2008 results that show solid sales figure increases in all divisions around the globe. Net sales for the quarter increased 5.8% to $82 million. Net income was up by the same amount to $8 million. EPS increased 10% to $0.49. The story is much the same for YTD figures. WD-40 posted these numbers despite a tremendous run-up in the prices of raw materials. Senior management is being conservative and has, therefore, reduced FY2008 guidance. The company now expects net sales to increase 4-8% to $320-$332 million. Net income will be in the $30 to $31 million range and EPS in the $1.78-$1.85 range.

The company is rolling out its Smart Straw initiative globally. No more looking for the stupid little red straw that always got separated from the spray can. Now all aerosol cans of WD-40 have a built-in applicator. What a relief.

WD-40 also owns 3-in1 oil, Lava soap, X-14 and Carpet Fresh. None of these products are environmentally friendly by any stretch of the imagination. To counteract the perception that its products are not environmentally sensitive, WD-40 has launched a new product line, Spot Shot, comprised of an environmentally safe carpet stain remover and pet odor remover.

The stock is trading at just over $27, near its 52-week low of $26.50, and pays $0.25 in quarterly dividend.

Booze a defensive play in a bear market

Bad news in the market means good news for Constellation Brands Inc. (NYSE: STZ) which manufactures and markets spirits, wines and beers under a variety of labels. Brands include Robert Mondavi wines, Corona beer and Black Velvet whiskey. When the economy is good, folks drink to celebrate. When the economy starts to tank, people drink to commiserate. Constellation benefits either way. The company just released 1Q 2009 results. Profits jumped 50%! Diluted (no pun intended) EPS was $0.20, up from $0.13 in 1Q 2008. Consoldiated net sales increased 3%, with wine sales up 15% and spirit sales, led by vodka, up 9%. Constellation offloaded several lower profit margin lines including Almaden and Inglenook wines, and added higher product margin line wines Clos du Bois and Wild Horse.

Investors, whether drinkers or tea-totalers, like the numbers. The stock is up over 5% in the last two days, closing on July 2nd at $21.22

General Motors (GM): Electro-Shock Therapy

General Motors Corporation (NYSE: GM) investors, as well as auto industry trackers, will want to read Jonathan Rauch's "Electro-Shock Therapy" in the July 2008 issue of Atlantic Magazine. Mr. Rauch was given unprecedented access to all personnel involved in GM's company-wide commitment to have a market-ready electric car by late 2010. GM personnel note the Chevy VOLT, as the car is named, will not be a hybrid per se, but will be the first mass market electric car with a range of 40 miles per charge, enough to cover the daily commute of 75% of American workers. The car's small gasoline engine will be used to recharge the battery, while only electricity will be used to power the wheels. GM is trying to wow consumers by manufacturing an affordable electric car that will sever the connection between driving and the gas pump.

GM lost the engineering and publicity wars on electric cars to Toyota's Prius years ago. Toyota has been eating GM's lunch ever sense. According to GM's VP Bob Lutz, it's payback time. Using the same rhetoric President Kennedy used to launch the Apollo space program and race to land on the moon, GM has sectioned off the Volt division and given it complete decision-making and spending authority to reinvent not only the electric automobile, but also the company itself. In one Volt engineer's words: "Go big or go home."

Yes, there are problems with the weight to power ratio in the battery. And yes, production of both the battery and the car body are being rushed towards production without the normal period of evaluation. But GM has staked its future on the Volt, and unlike my colleague Michael Rainey who isn't that positive on the Volt, there's reason for at least cautious optimism, a quality currently in short supply coming out of Detroit.

America's Car-Mart (CRMT) lets customers pay by pig

Headquartered in Bentonville, Arkansas, world capital of Wal-Mart, America's Car-Mart Incorporated (NASDAQ: CRMT) has taken a page from master marketer Sam Walton.

America's Car-Mart will make it possible for just about anyone with weak or limited credit history to purchase a basic, reliable used car. No money for the down payment? No problem. America's Car-Mart will accept anything of value, including furniture, electronics and even livestock, as part of the down payment. This approach seems to be working. At a time when Car-Max (NYSE: KMX) posted a 55% drop in earnings, America's Car-Mart posted 4Q 2008 revenue gain of 29% to $76.5 million. Gross margins are up, past due accounts are down (surprising in a tight rural economy), net income is way up, and the company's debt level is down. Retail sales by unit volume increased 25% despite the fact the company closed three underperforming dealerships in the quarter. The average retail sales price increased 7% and the company has worked hard to improve the quality of the used vehicles in its inventory.

These good numbers are not just a fluke for 4Q 2008. FY 2008 revenues are up 14% to $275 million. Net income totaled $15 million or $1.26 per diluted share. The company has invested in software to track loan delinquencies and has developed its own proprietary credit scoring method to serve its non-traditional client base. Investors are happy with the news. They bid the stock up more than 5% to close at $18.86, closing in on the stock's 52 week high.

Thornburg Mortgage (TMA) posts $3 billion quarterly loss

June 30 was the day when Thornburg Mortgage Inc. (NYSE: TMA) had hoped to complete at least 90% of its preferred stock repurchase as part of a last ditch effort to save the company from bankruptcy and return it to viability. CEO Larry Goldstone continues to state that bankruptcy is not an option.

Well, when the stock has lost 99% of its value, the company posted a $3 billion quarterly loss, no one will buy what you have to sell, shareholders who have lost just about everything don't want to play anymore, and Moody's handed the company a C (for crap) rating.

Bankruptcy looks like a realistic scenario. And just to keep things interesting, the SEC is investigating the company's 2007 financial results, the timing of margin calls, as well as accounting practices for the company's mortgage-backed securities.

Thornburg's problems have nothing to do with the sub-prime mortgage debacle, at least not directly. Thornburg specializes in jumbo mortgages to those with impeccable credit. Its default rate is the envy of the mortgage industry. So the problem is not creditworthiness, but liquidity. Investors simply are not interested in purchasing mortgage-backed securities of whatever quality in the secondary market.

Thornburg's latest last ditch effort calls for the company to purchase 90% of its preferred stock in exchange for $5 and 3.5 shares of common stock for each share of preferred stock. Shareholders recently gave the company permission to increase the number of shares outstanding from 500 million to four billion in order to make the tender offer possible. The deadline for tendering preferred shares has been extended to September 30. The stock is currently trading at $0.22 per share, way down from its 52 week high of $27.82.

Even a contrarian speculator will have to work very hard to find value in this one.

GAAP vs. IFRS: New accounting rules could mean trouble

As if investors do not have enough to worry about, along comes another problem. There is a growing movement to allow, perhaps eventually require, American companies and foreign companies trading in ADRs, to keep their books according to International Financial Reporting Standards, IFRS, instead of the venerable GAAP method we all know and love.

The move to IFRS makes a fair amount of sense given the global nature of capital markets. American investors will simply have to learn to read a balance sheet constructed using different rules. The problem looming on the horizon is, who will construct the IFRS balance sheets?

Continue reading GAAP vs. IFRS: New accounting rules could mean trouble

Gerber Scientific (GRB): a spot of economic color

With all the negative financial news, it's nice to be able to find a small company filling a need and not going broke trying to do it. Gerber Scientific Inc. (NYSE: GRB) manufactures eyeglass lens equipment, and a variety of flexible materials, including Spandex, for a variety of uses. With the recent introduction of its Solara ion low temperature UV inkjet printer, Gerber Scientific has moved into manufacturing and printing on flexible materials suitable for large-scale outdoor advertising banners and signage. The move seems to be working. The company recently reported positive 4Q and FY 2008 results.

4Q 2008 net income increased 9% to $6.1 million or $0.26 per share on revenues of $173.7 million. FY 2008 net income increased to $14.5 million or $0.61 per share on revenues of $640 million. These numbers were high enough for investors to bid up the stock 5% to close at just under $12. The stock's 52 week high is $12.64. Gerber Scientific CEO Marc Giles believes that FY 2009 numbers will be even better. The company is looking for big growth in its Spandex distribution business, particularly in Asian markets. Also, Giles expects many businesses to take advantage of additional outdoor advertising possibilities with the new Solara ion printer system.

MBIA's downgrade will cost it $7+ billion

Moody's Investor Services' recent downgrade of MBIA Inc. (NYSE: MBI) from Aaa to A2, a five notch drop, will cost MBIA more than $7 billion. MBIA is the country's leading insurer for municipal bonds and stable corporate bonds such as utility bonds. Due to increasing uncertainty regarding MBIA's mortgage related investments, Moody's judged MBIA to have only limited financial flexibility to address continued deterioration of its mortgage related portfolio, which has already taken a cumulative loss in excess of $2 billion.

MBIA must come up with $2.9 billion to cover potential termination payments in Guaranteed Investment Contracts (GICs). The company must also pony up $4.5 billion more to meet collateral posting requirements for these GICs. MBIA senior management insists it has more than $25 billion in assets, of which $15 billion is available to satisfy these collateral requirements.

So who do you believe? Both Moody's and S&P downgraded MBIA. The company's senior management says things are more or less fine. Clearly investors are backing Moody's and S&P. The stock closed on 6/25 at $4.91, and may be headed to its 52-week low of $4.25. MBIA's 52-week high was $68.98, but we shall not see numbers like that for many a day.

SEC wrings NEC's neck

If you have an ADR for Japanese electronics giant NEC, save it as a collectible. In light of the SEC's recent decision to revoke NEC's securities registration in the U.S., there will not be any more of those ADRs. NEC ran afoul of U.S. listing requirements when it failed to file annual reports for 2006 and 2007, and improperly booked revenues for 2000-2006. NEC was also the victim of internal fraud when at least 10 emplyees, over a period of several years, booked millions of dollars worth of fraudulent transactions. NEC had no procedures in place to authenticate or track these transactions.

To be fair to NEC, recognizing software sales revenue up front in complicated under GAAP SOP 97-2, particularly when the software is sold as part of a service package that also includes hardware and/or software maintenance. But NEC was responsible for taking steps to see it was not being robbed blind from within. NEC was delisted from active trading on Nasdaq in November 2007. NEC neither accepted nor disputed the SEC decision. The company has also been under investigation by the Tokyo Regional Taxation Bureau. NEC states it has constructed sufficient internal controls to cut back on the potential for internal fraud. Too little, too late. The stock now trades on the pink sheets.

CarMax (KMX) profits plunge 55%, shares plunge 16%

CarMax Inc. (NYSE: KMX) is getting squeezed by its own rising cost of borrowing money to finance consumer vehicle purchases, weakening consumer demand spreading across the board, declining customer traffic into sales locations, lower gross profit margins per vehicle, and rapidly accelerating declines in the resale prices of trucks, SUVs and other gas hogs already parked on its lots. All these factors mean that CarMax 1Q FY2009 EPS dropped to $0.13, down 55% from 1Q FY2008.

Don't look for improvement in any external factors in the near future. Nevertheless, CarMax senior management has decided to continue with its aggressive expansion program in order to gain market share across the country. Thus far, CarMax has opened six new used car superstores in 2008 with plans to open eight more. The company is also testing a program to centralize its appraisal and car buying programs into five car-buying centers spread throughout the country. CarMax hopes to obtain more of its used vehicles for resale directly from consumers rather than wholesale auto auctions. The profit margin is higher for CarMax on vehicles obtained directly from consumers.

CEO Tom Folliard has suspended guidance for the rest of FY2009 given so many broad-based economic uncertainties, including continued uncertainty in the subprime lending sector. CarMax's income from financing declined $27 million to $9.8 million in 1Q FY2009. The company is facing higher funding costs and higher loss assumptions. Presently the stock is trading right around $16, but will face an uphill battle just to stay in that price range.

Lindsay Corporation (LNN) dripping in profits; share price taking a bath

At least drought is good for somebody, especially irrigation equipment manufacturer and installer Lindsay Corporation (NYSE: LNN). Lindsay's 3Q total revenues increased 54% to $143.6 million. And this is before the extensive flooding in the Midwest damaged so many irrigation systems that will require repair or replacement as soon as the waters recede. Net earnings also just about doubled to $14.1 million or $1.15 per diluted share. Lindsay boosted irrigation equipment domestic revenues 46% and international revenues a staggering 95%. Infrastructure revenues increased 30%. Operating income increased 50% and backlog of unshipped orders increased 53%. This is a company that literally cannot ship product out the door quickly enough to satisfy customer demand.

The story is the same for the first nine months of fiscal 2008. Total revenues increased 57% to $328 million. Irrigation revenues both domestic and international were up a total of 58% and infrastructure revenues rose 55%. CEO Rick Parod predicts that demand for comprehensive irrigation systems, including pump station controls and designs, will continue strong for the foreseeable future. Lindsay systems help farmers stabilize crop yield while also conserving water.

Given the good numbers right now and for the future, it is difficult to explain the recent plunge in share price. Currently the stock is trading at just under $100, down 18% in 2 days. The 52-week low is $34.84. The 52-week high is $131.14. Pickings for strong growth stocks are slim right now. This one would well repay some investor due diligence.

Commercial Metals (CMC) steels itself for 3Q results

Commercial Metals Company (NYSE: CMC) recycles and re-manufactures various types of steel and metal products. While demand for its products is booming, particularly demand for rebar, the price the company must pay per ton of material to be recycled and re-manufactured increased far beyond the price increases the company can charge for its manufactured products. The company's margins are being squeezed, particularly in longer term fixed-price contracts that did not factor in the possibility of a 92% rise in raw alloy prices and a 33% increase in energy costs. Commercial Metals also uses LIFO (last in first out) as its inventory costing method. LIFO is meant to eliminate inflationary profits from net income and give a truer picture of a company's costs and profits.

In 3Q Commercial Metals had "unforeseen" LIFO expenses totaling $83 million or $0.71 per share, reducing actual EPS to $0.51, still above the company's EPS range of $0.31-$0.41. 3Q net earnings totaled $59.5 million compared to 3Q 2007 net earnings of $99.4 million. The company also racked up an SAP system reengineering expense of $18 million for the quarter, and $43 million for 1-3Q 2008.

The good news is that overall sales volumes increased 10%, spread between domestic and international productions. Markets for recycled and re-manufactured steel and metal products remain strong in Germany, Australia and the Middle East. China is reducing the tonnage of steel and rebar available for export, which further helps to keep demand strong and prices high in the Asian markets. Trading at just under $40 per share, this industrial stock could be a viable investment. But investors may need to be a CPA to figure out the balance sheet. Citigroup downgraded the stock from Buy to Hold due to the economic stresses in the manufacturing sector and the company's inventory costing method.

FactSet Research Systems (FDS) revenues up 22%

FactSet Research Systems (NYSE: FDS) provides up to the minute financial data for the global investment community. Data drives investment decisions, and FactSet controls the flow of data. Reporting 3Q results on 17 June, FactSet posted a 22% gain in revenues, 22% gain in net income, and 20% increase in diluted EPS, beating estimates by $0.02 per share. Despite taking a $2.6 million hit with the loss of Bear Stearns as a client, FactSet added another 500 subscribers to its financial information data sets. Existing subscribers increased their data packages by 20% in average subscriber value. FactSet shows strong revenue growth in both domestic markets, up 18% to $102 million, as well as international markets, revenues up 30% to $45.7 million.

FactSet is all set to complete its purchase of Thomson Fundamentals database in July 2008. This database contains historical financial information back to 1980. Purchase price falls in the $67-80 million range. FactSet senior management estimates this historical information has a market value of approximately $100 million. Historical financial information will be available for purchase through the same distribution channels FactSet presently uses to distribute current financial data to its present global investment clients. FactSet anticipates revenues from this purchase will begin to accrue to the company in early 2010. Final regulatory approval for the purchase by the European Commission and the U.S. Department of Justice is due any day.

The stock currently trades around $65 and change. Patient investors will realize sizeable gains, but not until well into 2010.

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Last updated: July 08, 2008: 09:14 PM

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